*Results in the article and online appendix*******************************
**************************************************************************
**************************************************************************
version 9.2

***Time Variables***************
gen timingchange = 0

replace timingchange = 1 if probation == 1 
replace timingchange = 2 if firstyear == 1 
replace timingchange = 3 if secondyear == 1  
replace timingchange = 4 if thirdyear == 1  
replace timingchange = 5 if fourthyear == 1 

label var timingchange "1 = during probation, 2 = during first year, 3 = during second year, 4 = during third year, 5 = during fourth year"


********************Competing Risks Model**********************************************
***************************************************************************************
***************************************************************************************

expand timingchange

bysort id: gen t = _n

lab var t "spell year identifier, by subject"


***gen dummy for each time period*******************
tab t, gen(d) 


****Dependent var in person-period form**************
*****************************************************
*****************************************************

gen multinomialhazard = 0
bysort id: replace multinomialhazard = 1 if multinomial2 == 2 & _n == _N

bysort id: replace multinomialhazard = 2 if multinomial2 == 3 & _n == _N


label var multinomialhazard "0=changer, 1=upgrader, 2=dropout"



****Competing Risks, cloglog Spezifikation**********************************************
****************************************************************************************
****************************************************************************************

****Create the relevant censoring variables********************************************
***************************************************************************************
***************************************************************************************
***************************************************************************************

gen leavers = 0
replace leavers = 1 if multinomial2 == 2 
replace leavers = 1 if multinomial2 == 3

bysort id: gen leftapprenticeship = leavers == 1 & _n == _N

****censoring variables for dropouts and upgraders**************************************
****************************************************************************************
****************************************************************************************

by id: gen cex_dropout = dropouts == 1 & _n == _N & bankruptcy == 0
label var cex_dropout "1= dropout"

by id: gen cex_upgrader = aufsteiger == 1 & _n == _N & bankruptcy == 0
label var cex_upgrader "1= upgrader"


*Table 5 in the article/Table 7 in the appendix***************************************
**************************************************************************************
****Upgrade I, Dropout I**************************************************************
**************************************************************************************
mlogit multinomialhazard d1-d3 financialincentive mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1,   baseoutcome(0) nocons

matrix b = e(b)
matrix v = e(V)
ereturn post b v
ereturn display, eform(exp_b)

****Upgrade II, Dropout II***************************************************************
*****************************************************************************************
mlogit multinomialhazard d1-d3 mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1,   baseoutcome(0) nocons

matrix b = e(b)
matrix v = e(V)
ereturn post b v
ereturn display, eform(exp_b)

*Table 8 in the appendix**************************************************************
**************************************************************************************
**************************************************************************************
**************************************************************************************

*including the relative wage variable:

qui cloglog leftapprenticeship d1-d3 financialincentive mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1, nocons

cloglog cex_upgrader d1-d3 financialincentive mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1, nocons

matrix b = e(b)
matrix v = e(V)
ereturn post b v
ereturn display, eform(exp_b)


cloglog cex_dropout d1-d3 financialincentive mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1, nocons

matrix b = e(b)
matrix v = e(V)
ereturn post b v
ereturn display, eform(exp_b)

*excluding the relative wage variable:

qui cloglog leftapprenticeship d1-d3 mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1, nocons

cloglog cex_upgrader d1-d3 mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1, nocons

matrix b = e(b)
matrix v = e(V)
ereturn post b v
ereturn display, eform(exp_b)

cloglog cex_dropout d1-d3 mig female boygirlsjob2 girlboysjob2 none real fachabi abi business crafts technical betw1049 betw5099 betw100499 over500 badprospects badincomeprospects badcareerpros examnerves findistress perc_bue2 supdem2001 unempl01 NRW BY Hessen BW Sachsen Brandenburg Niedersachsen Thueringen MV if statusklar == 1, nocons

matrix b = e(b)
matrix v = e(V)
ereturn post b v
ereturn display, eform(exp_b)