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Content:Arntz, Melanie, Stephan LThomsen: Are Personal Budgets a Financially Sound Reform Option for the German Long-Term Care Insurance? JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 378-402.
+ show abstract- hide abstractIn a long-run social experiment, personal budgets have been tested as an alternative home care
programof the German long-term care insurance (LTCI). By granting themonetary value of inkind
services in cash, personal budgets are considered to enable customized home care arrangements,
thereby avoiding costly nursing home care and thus saving LTCI spending. However,
personal budgets also compete with the already existing and less generous cash option of the
LTCI. Any transition from the receipt of cash benefits to personal budgets thus challenges the
view of personal budgets as a cost savings device, unless personal budgets sufficiently reduce
the use of costly nursing home care to balance these extra costs.
This paper therefore contrasts the short-term costs of implementing personal budgets with potential
cost savings if personal budgets enhance the stability of home care and avoid costly
nursing home care. For this purpose, the paper investigates the effects of personal budgets
on the duration of home care until moving to a nursing home as well as the perceived stability
of home care. Despite a positive effect of personal budgets on the stability of home care, LTCI
spending is likely to increase in the short to medium run. In the long run, however, the expected
transition to decreasing numbers of cash recipients favors the introduction of personal budgets. Horbach, Jens: The Impact of Innovation Activities on Employment in the Environmental Sector – Empirical Results for Germany at the Firm Level JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 403-419.
+ show abstract- hide abstractThe paper explores employment effects of environmental product innovations at the firm level.
Whereas there are many studies analysing this relationship for general innovations, studies for
the environmental sector are still rare. On the background of high political attention connected
with hopeful employment perspectives, a separate analysis of this sector in comparison to
other, non-environmental fields seems to be very important.
The empirical analysis is based on the establishment panel of the Institute for Employment
Research (Nuremberg). The econometric results show that the influence of environmental innovation
activities on the employment development is significantly positive and the quantitative
impact seems to be larger than in other, non-environmental fields.Within a bivariate probit
model, the determinants of environmental innovation activities are also explored. They may be
interpreted as indirect influences on the employment development of the firm. The results show
that the improvement of the innovative capacities byR&Dand further education measures and
the existence of highly qualified human capital are significantly important for the development
of new products in the environmental sector. Mohrenweiser, Jens, Uschi Backes-Gellner: The Effect of the Works Council Act on Paid Leave of Absence of Works Councillors JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 420-435.
+ show abstract- hide abstractIn establishments with a works council and 200 and more employees, the Works Council Act
requires the paid leave of absence of one works councillor, subjected to collective bargaining
and works agreements. This paper analyses the de-facto distribution of this legal provision and
shows that the paid leave of absence do not sharply increases at the legal threshold of 200
employees. Instead of a step function, we observe a continuous increase of the probability
of paid leave of absence with the number of employees. In particular, a lot of establishments
have a works councillor in paid leave of absence before the legal threshold and a lot of establishments
have no-one far behind the threshold. Contrary, the probability of paid leave of absence
for one works councillor sharply increases at the legal threshold for establishments with
bad relations between management and works council. Pierdzioch, Christian, Georg Stadtmann: Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters? JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 436-453.
+ show abstract- hide abstractExchange rates have been found to be more volatile than underlying macroeconomic fundamentals.
Researchers have argued that the empirically observed high exchange-rate volatility
may result from herd behavior of foreign-exchange traders and forecasters. We sketch a standard
model that illustrates that herd behavior of foreign-exchange-rate forecasters may be rational.
We then use survey data to test for herd behavior of forecasters. Our results suggest that
exchange-rate-forecasters anti-herd and “lean against the wind” when forecasting exchange
rates. Reitz, Stefan, Jan CRülke, Georg Stadtmann: Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 454-466.
+ show abstract- hide abstractWe use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll for the time period Oct.
1989 – Dec. 2008 to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings indicate
that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role.
Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters’ underperformance relative to the
random walk benchmark. We test the hypothesis of rational expectations by relying on the
criteria of unbiasedness and orthogonality. Although both conditions are met, the forecast accuracy
is significantly lower compared to na?¨ve random walk forecast. The forecasters have
problems to forecast the trends in the oil price. The recent roller-coaster movements in the
international oil market have revealed forecasters’ inability to predict major trends in the
spot oil price. As a consequence, some research institutes have stopped forecasting the oil price
as an ingredient of their macroeconomic models and use a random walk forecast instead. Wübker, Ansgar, Dirk Sauerland, Achim Wübker: Does Better Quality Information Affect Hospital Choice in Germany? JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 467-490.
+ show abstract- hide abstractThis paper examines, whether well prepared report cards affect hospital choice within Germany.
We report three main findings. First: hospitals, which publish their quality data voluntarily,
extend their market shares after relative to before publishing the quality data – compared
to such hospitals that do not publish their quality data. Second: in the group of the publishing
hospitals, hospitals with a higher than average quality increased their market shares after relative
to before the adoption of the report card – compared to hospitals with a lower than
average quality. Third: hospitals with quality below average are basically chosen by patients
living nearby and not by those with a higher travelling distance. Based on these finding decision
makers in hospitals have strong incentives (i) to make quality information publicly available
and (ii) to keep their quality scores high.
Book Reviews Parisi, Francesco, Charles K. Rowley (eds.): The Origins of Law and Economics JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 491-492.
Poot, Jacques, Brigitte Waldorf, Leo van Wissen (eds.): Migration and Human Capital JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 493-494.
Schmidtchen, D., C. Koboldt, J. Helstroffer, B. Will, G. Haas, S. Witte: Transport, Welfare and Externalities: Replacing the Polluter Pays Principle with the Cheapest Cost Avoider Principle JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 495-495.
Stiglitz, Joseph: Im freien Fall. Vom Versagen der Märkte zur Neuordnung der Weltwirtschaft JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 496-497.
Wagner, Adolf (Hrsg.): Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung heute JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 498-499.
Wray, L. Randall, Mathew Forstater (eds.): Keynes and Macroeconomics after 70 Years: Critical Assessments of The General Theory JBNST - Vol. 230/4 - 2010, pp. 500-500.
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