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Content:Timm Bönke, Berlin, and Carsten Schröder, Kiel: Poverty in Germany – Statistical Inference and Decomposition JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 178-209.
+ show abstract- hide abstractBased on six harmonized cross-sections of the German Sample Survey of Income and Expenditure,
we study inter-temporal changes in poverty from year 1978 to 2003. Results are decomposed
by region and household types, and the bootstrap method is applied to test for
the statistical significance of all our findings. Across household types, single parents with children
have the highest poverty risk.Most striking is a huge regional divide in poverty which only
narrows slightly over the period under investigation: the incidence and the intensity of poverty
are substantially higher in the New states. A nonlinear Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is conducted
to quantify the separate contribution of regional differences in households’ characteristics
to the likelhood of being poor. Estimates from the decomposition indicate that differences
in the distributions of socioeconomic characteristics play a negligible role for the 1993 poverty
divide. Already in year 2003, however, differences in the distributions of characteristics explain
more than fifty percent of the poverty divide, indicating that the poverty divide is likely to
become a persistent phenomenon. Christian Hohendanner, Nürnberg: One-Euro-Jobs and Regular Employment - An Analysis of Potential Substitution Effects Using the IAB Establishment Panel JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 210-246.
+ show abstract- hide abstractThe most widespread active labour market program in Germany is the so-called ‘One-Euro-
Job’. Participants carry out social activities like caring for the elderly, city cleaning or environmental
activities. The principal objective is to improve or maintain the employability of
hard-to-place unemployed. However, there is a certain risk of within-firm substitution of regular
employees by One-Euro-Job participants. The aim of the study is to identify such substitution
effects in participating establishments. For this purpose I present some descriptive
results from the survey ‘Experience with One-Euro-Jobs’. In a further step I use data from
the IAB Establishment Panel 2004 to 2007 to identify substitution effects. To account for selectivity,
I apply a difference-in-difference approach and propensity score matching. The empirical
results indicate that regular employment relationships are not substituted by One-Euro-Jobs.
This holds for West as well as for East Germany. However, the identification of within-firm
substitution in the matching procedure requires that the program has no employment effect
on the control group. Otherwise, substitution effects cannot be identified. For this reason,
I provide evidence for potential displacement effects in the control group using a fixed-effects
panel model. The results indicate that the control group is not affected by the program. Marcus Kappler, Mannheim: Business Cycle Co-movement and Trade Intensity in the Euro Area: is there a Dynamic Link? JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 247-265.
+ show abstract- hide abstractThis paper extends the recent literature that exclusively looks at the static link between bilateral
trade intensity and business cycle synchronisation. A cross section augmented VAR framework
with an unobservered common factor structure is used in order to apply the concept of
Granger causality to test for dynamic links between variables. I conclude that although countrieswith
intensive trade linkages also tend to have more similar business cycles in the long-run,
the trade channel does not help to explain much of the short-run variation of business cycle comovement
in the euro area. The common factors have high predictive power for both business
cycle co-movement and bilateral trade intensity. Thus, the paper provides evidence for the common
shock view on business cycle synchronisation. Tim Krieger, Paderborn, and Stefan Traub, Bremen: Has Intragenerational Redistribution Become Less Important in Pension Systems’ Public Pillar? An International Comparison Based on LIS Microdata JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 266-287.
+ show abstract- hide abstractWe empirically investigate whether the significance of intragenerational redistribution in the
public pillar of pension systems in 20 OECD countries has changed systematically since the
1980s and whether international convergence of the degree of intragenerational redistribution
can be observed. Intragenerational redistribution is measured by the Bismarckian factor which
provides information about the relative importance of the earnings-benefit link in the pension
formula (as compared to a flat-benefit Beveridgean pension system). Based on micro data from
the Luxembourg Income Study, we find both, a trend towards (more Bismarckian) pension
systems which obey the principle of participation equivalence and an international convergence
of pension systems. The reduced variation of pension systems (sigma convergence) is
driven by countries with a high degree of intragenerational redistribution catching up with
more traditional Bismarckian countries (beta convergence). Both, fundamental pension reforms
as Sweden’s and Italy’s move to „notional defined contribution‘‘ systems, and parametric
reforms ranging from the removal of group-specific benefits to alternative calculations of
contribution history, such as changing from „best years‘‘ to the entire worklife, underlie
this development.
Discussion Paper Dirk Meyer, Hamburg: The Costs of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) – The German Point of View JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 288-303.
+ show abstract- hide abstractThe European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which is supported by the German Gesetz
zur Übernahme von Gewährleistungen im Rahmen des europäischen Stabilisierungsmechanismus
(StabMechG), suspends the Stability and Growth Pact as the basis of the European
Economic and Monetary Union. The actual ‘suspension’ from the ’no bail-out’ restriction
(Art. 125 TFEU) and the prohibition of funding national debts (Art. 123 TFEU) transfers risks
and financial burdens from deeply indebted states to solvent EU member states. As a result an
unauthorized „transfer union‘‘ emerges, whose Central Bank lost its independence to a political
leadership and cannot focus on its objective of price stability as contracted any longer. Even
without the use of financial and guarantee aids the German economy suffers from a distorted
yield structure and crowding-out effects of private investments. From the economic point of
view the used measures are neither appropriate nor necessary for achieving financial stability
within the European Economic and Monetary Union. Much less these measures are proportionate.
Of course, the alternative of accepting a ‘controlled’ national bankruptcy would
not have been without its formidable costs.However, its attribution of arrangements in the line
with market requirements and the adherence to EU-contract provisions would have been the
more worthwhile regulatory policy option for a more solid budgetary policy in the future.
Der Beitrag geht der Frage nach, ob und inwiefern der Europäische Finanzstabilisierungsmechanismus
(EFSM), der durch das Gesetz zur Übernahme von Gewährleistungen
im Rahmen eines europäischen Stabilisierungsmechanismus (StabMechG)1 Eingang
in deutsches Recht gefunden hat, die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) auf eine neue
Diskussionsbeitrag / Discussion Paper
Jahrbücher f. Nationalökonomie u. Statistik (Lucius & Lucius, Stuttgart 2011) Bd. (Vol.) 231/2
Geschäftsgrundlage stellt. Er zeigt die möglichen monetären und finanziellen Folgen und
Belastungen für Deutschland auf, die durch die unkonventionelle Geldpolitik der Europa
¨ ischen Zentralbank (EZB) sowie aus den Krediten und Gewährleistungen des ,Rettungsschirms’
entstehen können.
Review Paper Wagner, Adolf: Advanced Evolutionary Economics JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 304-313.
Book Reviews Pies, Ingo, Martin Leschke (Hrsg.): Douglass Norths ökonomische Theorie der Geschichte JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 314-315.
Schöbel, Enrico: Steuerehrlichkeit – Eine politisch-ökonomische und zugleich finanzsoziologische Analyse der Einkommensteuerrechtsanwendung und -befolgung in Deutschland JBNST - Vol. 231/2 - 2011, pp. 316-316.
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