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Original Articles Heiko Dreyer, Svetlana Fedoseeva and Roland Herrmann: Gravity Meets Pricing to Market: What a Combined-Method Approach Tells Us on German Beer Exports and Pricing JBNST - Vol. 237/4 - 2017, pp. 295-328.
+ show abstract- hide abstractGravity and pricing to market (PTM) models have been used to elaborate determinants of bilateral trade and export pricing for different countries and
branches. Typically, only one of the two methods was chosen. We show in a
stepwise approach how a combination of both methods can reveal novel results
on the determinants of exports and export pricing behaviour. For the case of
German beer exports, we show that structural differences exist between markets
on which exporters apply either PTM or non-PTM strategies. German beer
exporters apply PTM strategies, in particular local-currency stabilization, on
those markets where imports are very sensitive to exchange-rate changes. NonPTM strategies, i. e. full exchange-rate transmission, occur on export markets
with insensitive reactions. Apart from PTM strategies, German beer exports are
strongly dependent on policy variables such as the introduction of the Euro and
the partner country’s membership in the EU. Kevin Kovacs, Bryan Boulier and Herman Stekler: Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points JBNST - Vol. 237/4 - 2017, pp. 329-342.
+ show abstract- hide abstractHistorically, forecasters have failed to predict cyclical turning points
and the forecasting record in this regard has not improved. This suggests that we
should focus on what should be an easier task, recognizing recessions as they
occur. We present a new approach that will enable us to determine in real-time
when there is a significant deviation from an economy’s dynamic growth path.
This approach uses a CUSUM-like methodology and requires us to construct an
index,that we call the Economic News Index, from real-time data that shows
how the economy is functioning. We apply this approach to German data to
nowcast the recessions that began in 2008 and 2012.
Book Reviews Ulrich Volz: Aleksander V. Gevorkyan and Otaviano Canuto (Eds.): Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets. Current Perils and Future Dawns JBNST - Vol. 237/4 - 2017, pp. 343-344.
Michael Frenkel: Edwar S. Prasad: The Dollar Trap – How the U.S. Dollar Tightened its Grip on Global Finance JBNST - Vol. 237/4 - 2017, pp. 345-348.
Data Observer Janine Lange, Almuth Lietz, Jens Ambrasat, Jakob Tesch and Antje Wegner: The German Doctoral Candidates and Doctorate Holders Study ProFile JBNST - Vol. 237/4 - 2017, pp. 349-364.
Katja Görlitz and Marcus Tamm: Panel Data on Training Activities – Voucher Recipients and Eligible Employees of the Program Bildungsprämie JBNST - Vol. 237/4 - 2017, pp. 365-365.
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