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Content:Guest Editorial JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 260-265.
Original Papers Aus dem Moore, Nils, Christoph M. Schmidt: On the Shoulders of Giants: Tracing Back the Intellectual Sources of the Current Debate on “GDP and Beyond” to the 19th Century JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 266-290.
+ show abstract- hide abstractAn eternal motive of human existence is the search for guidance.While values and beliefs retain
their high relevance, today’s enlightened societies also tend to rest their aspirations and decisions
on the actual facts and on a sober assessment of possible courses of events emerging from
different choices. Given the complexity of modern life, it is by now well understood that this
strategy requires objective, comprehensive and accessible statistical reporting. Today, the
desire to provide such a valuable basis for individual decisions and policy-making finds
one of its most important expressions in the international debate on “GDP and beyond”.
In contrast to similar efforts displayed in previous decades, the current projects emphasize
sustainability issues and focus on the accessibility of the information, using modern tools
of measurement and presentation. Yet, there is ample evidence that even by the mid-19th
century economists aspired to use the objectifying power of statistical analysis as an instrument
to improve policy-making and to achieve societal progress. Many of the approaches entertained
today have thus to be viewed as an extension of attempts started at that time. Burret, Heiko T., Lars P. Feld, Ekkehard A. Köhler: Sustainability of Public Debt in Germany – Historical Considerations and Time Series Evidence JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 291-335.
+ show abstract- hide abstractWe analyse German public finances against a theoretical background using a unique database,
retrieved frommultiple sources covering the period between 1850 and 2010.Multiple currency
crises and force majeure offer anecdotal evidence contradicting the historical perception of
Germany being the poster child of European public finance. Given these corresponding breaks
in time series, the empirical analysis is conducted for the sub-periods 1872-1913 and 1950-
2010. In addition to anecdotal historical analysis, we conduct formal tests on fiscal sustainability,
including tests on stationarity and cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression
(VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject the hypothesis
that fiscal policy was sustainable in the period before the First World War, the tests
allow for a rejection of the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability for the period from 1950 to 2010.
This evidence leads to the conclusion that Germany’s public debt is in dire need of consolidation.
Albeit constituting a much needed reform to this development, the incompleteness of the
German debt brake and fiscal federalismwill have to be addressed in the coming years, in order
to ensure that fiscal consolidation actually takes place – for the sake of public debt sustainability. Von der Lippe, Peter: Recurrent Price Index Problems and Some Early German Papers on Index Numbers JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 336-366.
+ show abstract- hide abstractWith Laspeyres, Paasche and other authors such as Drobisch and Lehr, Germany made quite a
promising start in index theory in the last decades of the 19th century. However, it soon lost
ground after this period, which is described in this paper. The focus is not on biographies but on
controversies where these persons acted as opponents and developed the views for which they
are well known. The issues selected are primarily those which are still interesting and controversial
today, e. g. the merits and demerits of certain index formulas, the definition and updating
of weights, “pure” price comparison vs. chain indices etc. However, in order to aid a better
understanding of how Laspeyres etc. arrived at their index formulas and views about the
purposes index numbers should serve, some attention is also given to the typical disputes
and prejudices of that time (e. g. regarding inflation under the regime of a gold currency). Feuerstein, Switgard: From the Zollverein to the Economics of Regionalism JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 367-388.
+ show abstract- hide abstractThe paper is a contribution to the special issue “150 years Journal of Economics and Statistics”.
The starting point is a series of articles on the nature and the history of the German
Zollverein by Gustav Fischer in the early volumes of the Journal. Both the perception of
the Zollverein and the economics of preferential trade are traced over time. The focus is
on the analogies between the Zollverein and the European Community and on the expansion
of the Zollverein in view of the modern theory of sequencing in forming a trade bloc. Egeler, Roderich, Natalie Dinsenbacher, Birgit Kleber: The Relevance of Census Results for a Modern Society JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 389-405.
+ show abstract- hide abstractPopulation censuses have been conducted for thousands of years and they are one of the bases
of any official statistics. By giving a detailed overview of the structure of a country’s population
at a specific point in time, they provide one of the most important parameters for political
action.
In addition, in modern statistical systems, population censuses are the data basis for a variety of
further statistical information, such as intercensal updates of the number of inhabitants. They
provide the basis for the statistical fields which either describe the population or in which
population data are integrated. Furthermore they allow drawing reliable population samples
and performing qualified extrapolation of sample results.
This article focuses on the relevance of censuses in general and, more specifically, of the current
2011 Census in Germany. Following a historical overview in the first part of the article, the
second part describes the various definitions of “population”, the relevance and issues of
defining the survey unit and of operationalising concepts of variables. In the third part,
some examples illustrate various areas that are relevant for statistics and social policy and
for which the 2011 Census will provide information, while the fourth part provides an outlook
on how the census can be developed further, both in terms of methodology and contents. Kendzia, Michael J., Klaus F. Zimmermann: Celebrating 150 Years of Analyzing Fertility Trends in Germany JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 406-422.
+ show abstract- hide abstractEver since the very beginning of the Journal of Economics and Statistics population economics
has featured prominently in the Journal. Fertility naturally plays an important role in population
economics. However, the level of German fertility has decreased significantly from the
1900s. The paper documents and analyzes the long-termdevelopment trends.We identify three
different explanatory approaches for the decline in fertility according to which the various
articles of the Journal related to this area are categorized. The paper also investigates fertility
studies published by the Journal since the beginning. It points out that several articles anticipated
subsequent research directions in the area of population economics at an early stage.
In addition, significant contributions were made to improve and develop existing knowledge
and understanding. Thus, the Journal has helped to expand the research area of population
economics. Issing, Otmar, Volker Wieland : Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 423-445.
+ show abstract- hide abstractIn this paper, we provide some reflections on the development of monetary theory and monetary
policy over the last 150 years. Rather than presenting an encompassing overview, which
would be overambitious, we simply concentrate on a few selected aspects that we view as
milestones in the development of this subject.We also try to illustrate some of the interactions
with the political and financial system, academic discussion and the views and actions of
central banks.
Book Review Holub, Hans-Werner: Eine Einführung in die Geschichte des Ökonomischen Denkens JBNST - Vol. 233/3 - 2013, pp. 446-448.
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